Cigarette smoking is a health hazard of sufficient importance in the United States to warrant appropriate remedial action. It was 50 years ago this month that America"s surgeon-general sounded that warning, marking the beginning of the end of cigarette manufacturing—and of smoking itself— as a respectable activity. Some 20m Americans have died from the habit since then. But advertising restrictions, smoking bans and stigma have had their effect: the proportion of American adults who smoke has dropped from 43% to 18% ; smoking rates among teenagers are at a record low. In many other countries the trends are similar. The current surgeon-general, Boris Lushniak, marked the half-century with a report on January 17th, declaring smoking even deadlier than previously thought. He added diabetes, colorectal cancer and other ailments to the list of ills it causes, and promised "end-game strategies" to stamp out cigarettes altogether. Were that to happen America"s three big tobacco firms, Altria, Reynolds and Lorillard, could be snuffed out , too. Public health officials plot the same fate for multinationals that supply other markets. The hit list includes Philip Morris International(PMI), which along with Altria makes Marlboro, the top-selling global brand; Japan Tobacco; and British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco of Britain. They are a hardy group, unlikely to be frightened. But the methods they have used to withstand a half-century of battering by regulators may be losing power. In the rich world, where the economy is stagnant, smokers are trading down to cheaper puffs. The regulatory climate in developing countries is becoming more hostile. New technologies such as e-cigarettes promise to deliver nicotine less riskily. Big tobacco firms may master them, but it would be a radical shift, similar to converting the car industry from internal-combustion engines to battery power. David Adelman of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, does not " see anything that"s reversing the conventional tobacco business model. " But the model needs adjustment. Some reasons for Mr Adelman"s confidence are sound. Advertising bans and the industry"s status prevent would-be competitors. When cigarette-makers raise prices, smokers cough up. Global consumption keeps rising, thanks largely to population growth in poorer countries. The cigarette giants indulge investors with big dividends atnd share buy-backs; they have flocked to tobacco share. New technologies like e-cigarettes______.