Have you ever wondered what our future is like Practically all people 21 a desire to predict their future 22 . Most people seem inclined to 23 this task using causal reasoning. First we 24 recognize that future circumstances are 25 caused or conditioned by present ones. We learn that getting an education will 26 how much money we earn later and that swimming beyond the reef may bring an unhappy 27 with a shark. Second, people also learn that such 28 of cause and effect are probabilistic (可能的) in nature. That is, the effects occur more often when the causes occur than when the causes are 29 , but not always. Thus, students learn that studying hard 30 good grades in most instances, but not every time. Science makes these concepts of causality and probability more 31 and provides techniques for dealing 32 them more accurately than does causal human inquiry. In looking at ordinary human inquiry, we need to 33 between prediction and understanding. Often, even if we don"t understand why, we are willing to act 34 the basis of a demonstrated predictive ability. Whatever the primitive drives 35 motivate human beings, satisfying them depends heavily on the ability to 36 future circumstances. The attempt to predict is often played in a 37 of knowledge and understanding. If you can understand why certain regular patterns 38 , you can predict better than if you simply observe those patterns. Thus, human inquiry aims 39 answering both "what" and "why" question, and we pursue these 40 by observing and figuring out.